Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty Management Principles

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Sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical and economic parameters is essential for maximizing profitability of oil and gas field development and operations. Characteristic key drivers for development projects include: production profile (initial rate, plateau and decline), capital and operating costs, commodity price, cycle time, EUR, and completion & mechanical chance.

Traditional deterministic methods call for ongoing study of key parameters to get ever closer to “The Right Answer.” Probabilistic methods, on the other hand, recognize that most parameters have some amount of uncertainty, even through the development phase. Accordingly, a better approach is to deal with this uncertainty through probabilistic estimates of key parameters, using the extra time created to evaluate other projects. This course helps professionals learn to become proficient probabilistic estimators!

The course provides a review of fundamental concepts of statistics, uncertainty theory, Project Assurance, reserve uncertainty, chance assessment and aggregation principles. It is designed for engineers, commercial team members, geoscientists, managers and planners involved with drilling, reservoir evaluation and production management.

Content duration: (6:24:48)

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    Chapter 1- Probabilities and Statistics 1:07:26

    1.01 Course Introduction (01:54)  Sample Lesson

    1.02 Course Objectives & Outline (12:04)

    1.03 Probabilities Distributions and Dependencies (19:18)

    1.04 Cumulative Frequency (16:03)

    1.05 Ambiguous Terms and Other Distrubution Methods (18:07)

    Chapter 2 - Estimating under Uncertainty 1:47:13

    2.01 Correlations (13:55)

    2.02 Estimating Under Uncertainty (47:20)

    2.03 Bias Part 1 (22:35)

    2.04 Bias Part 2 (23:23)

    Chapter 3 – Reserve Uncertainty and Chance 59:59

    3.01 Differentiating Resources & Reserves (16:07)

    3.02 Recovery Efficiency & Production Modeling Uncertainty (13:27)

    3.03 What About Chance? (16:15)

    3.04 Discount Rates & Probabilistic Economic Output (14:10)

    Chapter 4 – Aggregation Principles 1:31:19

    4.01 Aggregation Principles (17:47)

    4.02 Impact of Aggregation (08:22)

    4.03 Aggregation Derivative Applications - Example 1 (11:43)

    4.04 Aggregation Derivative Applications - Example 2 (14:21)

    4.05 Aggregation Derivative Applications - Confidence Curves (08:31)

    4.06 Sequential Accumulation Plots (09:42)

    4.07 Sequential Accumulation Plots Case Study (20:53)

    Chapter 5 – Project Assurance 58:51

    5.01 Project Assurance (19:42)

    5.02 Managing Uncertainty - Boston Square Approach (15:00)

    5.03 Sensitivity Analysis (24:09)