Chapter 1- Probabilities and Statistics

1.01 Course Introduction (1 min.) Sample Lesson
1.02 Course Objectives & Outline (12 min.)
1.03 Probabilities Distributions and Dependencies (19 min.)
1.04 Cumulative Frequency (16 min.)
1.05 Ambiguous Terms and Other Distrubution Methods (18 min.)

Chapter 2 - Estimating under Uncertainty

2.01 Correlations (13 min.)
2.02 Estimating Under Uncertainty (47 min.)
2.03 Bias Part 1 (22 min.)
2.04 Bias Part 2 (23 min.)

Chapter 3 – Reserve Uncertainty and Chance

3.01 Differentiating Resources & Reserves (16 min.)
3.02 Recovery Efficiency & Production Modeling Uncertainty (13 min.)
3.03 What About Chance? (16 min.)
3.04 Discount Rates & Probabilistic Economic Output (14 min.)

Chapter 4 – Aggregation Principles

4.01 Aggregation Principles (17 min.)
4.02 Impact of Aggregation (8 min.)
4.03 Aggregation Derivative Applications - Example 1 (11 min.)
4.04 Aggregation Derivative Applications - Example 2 (14 min.)
4.05 Aggregation Derivative Applications - Confidence Curves (8 min.)
4.06 Sequential Accumulation Plots (9 min.)
4.07 Sequential Accumulation Plots Case Study (20 min.)

Chapter 5 – Project Assurance

5.01 Project Assurance (19 min.)
5.02 Managing Uncertainty - Boston Square Approach (15 min.)
5.03 Sensitivity Analysis (24 min.)

Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty Management Principles / Chapter 1- Probabilities and Statistics

Lesson 1.01 Course Introduction

Access All SAGA Wisdom Training content Subscribe

Already a member? Sign in

Access All SAGA Wisdom Training content Subscribe

Already a member? Sign in

Transcript

01. Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty Management Principles: Course Introduction

Welcome everyone. My name is Jim Gouveia, I'll be your instructor today. I've got about 40 years of experience in the industry. I started with Amoco back in 1980 as a production engineer, I moved on to reservoir engineering, where after establishing myself, I moved into management, got into a lot of technical leadership roles. I was the director of risk management for 4 years for Amoco Energy North America, where I developed back in the early 90s, a lot of the methodologies that are very, very commonplace today.
The course we're teaching here is an Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty Management, some of the principles in petroleum engineering. I developed a lot of this with my time in Amoco and then BP and the last 18 years with Rose and Associates. I've really focused on teaching and developing pragmatic methods in this area.
So today we'll be covering some of the basics in probability and statistics, correlations. Not stuff you get in a textbook but really, what are some of the implications of what hopefully you all know or you'll get from somewhere else. Principles of estimating under uncertainty, something which is a critical skill set which is rarely taught anywhere. Understanding reserve uncertainty and chance. And then getting into aggregation principles, which are really important to understand for economics and reserve bookings. And finishing off with a little bit on project assurance.